接收继承：不要听人群
由于最初出现在耶路撒冷邮报2020年6月26日。
The only way you will ever permanently take control of your financial life is to dig deep and fix the root problem. –Suze Orman
几个星期前，我的3个RDgrader asked me if she could get her ears pierced. If it was solely up to me the answer to that question would be easy. “Sure you can pierce your ears. When you turn 18!” Understanding that would be my initial response, she decided to wait to ask me until she had the rest of her arguments lined up. She first got her mother’s thumbs-up, then her sister’s ‘coincidentally’ reminded me that they were in 3RD年级时他们有耳洞，然后她强调，她的几乎整个班级刺穿自己的耳朵。这基本上给我留下任何选择，但要认识到有仗打，这是不是其中之一。
在某些方面不知不觉她用代表她的“围观”工作。利用群众的智慧，已经成为一个非常流行的决策工具。什么人群平均的智慧？据Investopedia，“群众的智慧是想法一大群人都集体智慧的不是个别专家，当谈到解决问题，决策，创新和预测。”
并不总是那么聪明
在最后一周两次,我收到电话s from recent inheritance recipients. In both cases, they asked their friends what they should do with the money and in both instances, the unanimous answer was to buy an apartment. I’m all for real estate if you can afford it. In one of the cases, a single mother of 3 received about 800,000 nis in an inheritance. She had only called to check if there was anything short term to do with her money while she looked to buy an apartment. She told me her friends all told her that was the best thing to do with her newfound funds. I started asking pointed questions about her financial situation and it turns out that she is unemployed, doesn’t think she is able to work emotionally, and an overdraft. She gets some alimony and has a few other small sources of income, including charity, and is about 3-4,000nis short each month. I told her to work with a budgeting organization, and that at this point buying an apartment would be a big financial mistake. I explained that based on what she was telling me, she would need to use up almost all of her money for the purchase. She would have no money left, add to her minus every month, and not be able to make the mortgage payments let alone feed and educate her 3 children.
When I asked if any of her friends understood her financial picture she said no. None of them asked.
差不多15年前，凯斯R.森斯坦操刀在哈佛商业评论的文章，题为：“当人群是不明智的”。她在分析非常平衡，并介绍情况时，下列人群有意义，当它没有。她写道：“毫不奇怪，许多公司，包括微软，谷歌，礼来，一直在问自己的员工参与预测市场，‘押宝’的产品是否会卖，当新的办事处将打开，并且利润是否会高在下一季度。（该市场的结构是按照对赌禁令。）早期的预测一直非常准确。在谷歌，例如，可能发生的预计为80％的事件往往发生的80％的时间;这些预测为60％，有可能趋向于发生的60％的时间;等等。”
But then she discussed when the crowd misses the mark, “But for those who embrace crowd wisdom and prediction markets, there’s an important qualification. As Condorcet himself warned, his theorem reveals the downside of group decisions. Suppose that each individual in a group is more likely to be wrong than right because relatively few people in the group have access to accurate information. In that case, the likelihood that the group’s majority will decide correctly falls toward zero as the size of the group increases.”
Expert advice
好心的朋友和评论海报在Facebook团通常缺乏做出明智的决策所需的关键信息，涉及到现有的具体情况。正如我已经写了很多次，我经常推荐那些谁突然进入了一个大量的资金，作出任何决定之前要等待2-3个月。我发现，这有助于客户安定下来，并成为多一点关注和了解如何用这些钱做更冲动。
Make sure your goals are realistic based on the amount of money that you received. It may be beneficial to speak with a professional financial advisor as they can draw on their experience to make sure you are headed in the right direction.
The information contained in this article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the opinion of Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. or its affiliates.
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