这是一个星期Katsman ho的里程碑me. First, our youngest son decided that he needs to have a hamster. While his oldest sister begged him not to get one, I was more worried about what this would mean for me. He very confidently calmed my nerves by saying that it’s no problem and will be easy for him to care for the little rodent. Flashback 5 or 6 years as my oldest son decided to get a hamster and assured me he would care for it, and while he enjoyed it for around 15 minutes, it turned out that yours truly had to feed it and clean the cage. If not for my dear wife noticing that we hadn’t heard from the little guy in a few days, it would probably still be lying without vital signs, in its cage. Wary of a repeat situation, I made our son sign a “Taking care of pet” contract. So far so good, as he has been feeding and holding the hamster.
Speaking of my older son, this week marked his first driving lesson. His initial feedback from his instructor was that he “has a lot of confidence”, which is probably driver instructor speak for slow down and drive safely!
Overconfidence is something that can plague investors as well. It often happens after an investor makes a few successful investments, especially when the stock market is in the midst of a good run. I remember back in 1999, people would go on and on how they were great investors as they bought hi-tech stocks and watched them double in a few weeks’ time. They convinced themselves that making money was a snap. Well, that slap in the face came during the second half of March 2000 as the stock market started a very long and painful drop which was most felt in those very same hi-tech companies that ran up.
Research Is Not Good
A few years ago I quoted Tony Giordano, a senior financial advisor with Vanguard on a piece that appeared in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, titled Overconfident Investors, Predictable returns, and Excessive Trading. The report said, “Investors attribute strong portfolio performance and high returns to their skills, which leads to self-assurance. When the same investors experience poor performance and low returns, they attribute it to bad luck. The result: persistent overconfidence.”
虽然他在几年前写了这个，它似乎是预言，考虑到最近3个月的股市下跌和恢复，佐丹奴概括起来时，他说，“如果强劲的市场表现让你任性与快速回报的可能性，avoid the temptation to go after investments that will expose you to more risk than you’d feel comfortable with under ordinary circumstances. On the flip side, if poor market performance tempts you to flee to cash, consider the longer-term implications, which include missing a potential market rebound and losing future growth opportunities.”
What’s this mean? Stay the course that you started out with. Part of your financial plan took into account good years in the market. Take the money and say thanks. But don’t get overconfident and start getting more and more aggressive and end up making costly mistakes. If you follow your asset allocation you will be able to achieve your financial goals.
The information contained in this article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the opinion of Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. or its affiliates.
manbetx苹果客户端亚伦Katsman是本书退休GPS的文章：如何定位自己的方式安全的金融未来全球投资（麦格劳 - 希尔），并且无论是在美国和以色列的持牌金融专业，并帮助人们谁开投资账户在美国。证券通过组合资源集团有限公司（www.prginc.net）提新万博取款周期供。会员FINRA，SIPC，MSRB，SIFMA。欲了解更多信息，请致电（02）624-0995访问www.sisoftball.com或电子邮件aaron@lighthousecapital.co.il。