一种新的仓鼠，DRIVERS-ED和投资者的过度自信
由于最初出现在耶路撒冷邮报2020年5月21日。
“嗯，我想我们很努力不要过于自信，因为当你自信，当事情扣起来，咬你这是。-尼尔阿姆斯特朗
这是一个星期Katsman ho的里程碑me. First, our youngest son decided that he needs to have a hamster. While his oldest sister begged him not to get one, I was more worried about what this would mean for me. He very confidently calmed my nerves by saying that it’s no problem and will be easy for him to care for the little rodent. Flashback 5 or 6 years as my oldest son decided to get a hamster and assured me he would care for it, and while he enjoyed it for around 15 minutes, it turned out that yours truly had to feed it and clean the cage. If not for my dear wife noticing that we hadn’t heard from the little guy in a few days, it would probably still be lying without vital signs, in its cage. Wary of a repeat situation, I made our son sign a “Taking care of pet” contract. So far so good, as he has been feeding and holding the hamster.
Speaking of my older son, this week marked his first driving lesson. His initial feedback from his instructor was that he “has a lot of confidence”, which is probably driver instructor speak for slow down and drive safely!
我比巴菲特更
Overconfidence is something that can plague investors as well. It often happens after an investor makes a few successful investments, especially when the stock market is in the midst of a good run. I remember back in 1999, people would go on and on how they were great investors as they bought hi-tech stocks and watched them double in a few weeks’ time. They convinced themselves that making money was a snap. Well, that slap in the face came during the second half of March 2000 as the stock market started a very long and painful drop which was most felt in those very same hi-tech companies that ran up.
在过去的几个星期，因为市场已经从冠状病毒引起的激增下降，再次它是高科技领域处于领先地位。现在此举是否合理与否，是一个不同的列。我已经开始从特定客户和其他人，我与投资讲的通知是容易的，这将继续，不会中断。我曾与谁想要放弃自己非常保守的性质和开始追逐任何有技术的色彩在里面某些客户端发言。
Research Is Not Good
A few years ago I quoted Tony Giordano, a senior financial advisor with Vanguard on a piece that appeared in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, titled Overconfident Investors, Predictable returns, and Excessive Trading. The report said, “Investors attribute strong portfolio performance and high returns to their skills, which leads to self-assurance. When the same investors experience poor performance and low returns, they attribute it to bad luck. The result: persistent overconfidence.”
它是持续的过度自信会导致糟糕的投资决定。说它贪婪或什么，但其中良好的市场一年之后，投资者却看不到她的理财目标和需求，并决定越来越高回报追我见过太多次了。你们都知道发生了最后，这是不漂亮。
Long-term
虽然他在几年前写了这个，它似乎是预言，考虑到最近3个月的股市下跌和恢复，佐丹奴概括起来时，他说，“如果强劲的市场表现让你任性与快速回报的可能性，avoid the temptation to go after investments that will expose you to more risk than you’d feel comfortable with under ordinary circumstances. On the flip side, if poor market performance tempts you to flee to cash, consider the longer-term implications, which include missing a potential market rebound and losing future growth opportunities.”
资产分配
我已经说过了一千次，但值得重复。搞清楚自己的目标和需求后，你的资产配置，以帮助你实现这些目标，说什么是重要的。许多研究表明，股票，债券和现金在投资组合中持有的比例比被选择的个人投资，其回报率有较大的影响和波动。
What’s this mean? Stay the course that you started out with. Part of your financial plan took into account good years in the market. Take the money and say thanks. But don’t get overconfident and start getting more and more aggressive and end up making costly mistakes. If you follow your asset allocation you will be able to achieve your financial goals.
The information contained in this article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the opinion of Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. or its affiliates.
manbetx苹果客户端亚伦Katsman是本书退休GPS的文章：如何定位自己的方式安全的金融未来全球投资（麦格劳 - 希尔），并且无论是在美国和以色列的持牌金融专业，并帮助人们谁开投资账户在美国。证券通过组合资源集团有限公司（www.prginc.net）提新万博取款周期供。会员FINRA，SIPC，MSRB，SIFMA。欲了解更多信息，请致电（02）624-0995访问www.sisoftball.com或电子邮件aaron@lighthousecapital.co.il。
